The Brave New World
23rd January 2025
January has been one of those months that makes you pause. Not because of price action—that’s just numbers dancing on screens—but because of what those numbers are trying to tell us about the architecture of the global system itself.
Little did I know when I planned on starting a forum to help investors that I would be closing it before it even began.
The world is having a conversation about what money means, who holds power, and how the rules of the game are being rewritten in real time.
And in moments like this, I’ve made a deliberate choice: to step back from social media entirely in an attempt to improve my Signal to Noise Ratio.
While headlines obsess over daily price swings, the most sophisticated institutional actors in the world have been telegraphing their assessment through their reserve allocation decisions.
For example, Central banks accumulated 297 tonnes of gold through November 2025, with projections for 2026 settling around 755 tonnes. To context, pre-2022 averages were 400-500 tonnes annually. The current pace represents a 50-90% structural increase above historical norms.
- Ursula Von der Leyen at Davos
When the largest reserve managers in the world quietly but persistently rotate into hard assets despite record prices, they are signaling something far more consequential than a bullish technical setup.
They are expressing a loss of confidence in the durability of existing monetary arrangements.
Warren Buffett once observed that “the stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient”. This principle becomes especially potent during macro inflections.
Most financial market information we see on social media, discuss in communities is noise, not signal.
Signal consists of relevant, actionable information—fundamentals, secular macro trends, long-term data patterns that persist beyond individual events or sentiment.
Noise comprises market rumors, speculation, and media-amplified sentiments that have minimal bearing on long-term outcomes.
The Bretton Woods dollar order, NATO cohesion, globalized supply chains, consensus monetary policy—all are experiencing unprecedented times.
What unfolds over the next 12-36 is uncertain.
The policy decisions emerging from Washington, Brussels, Beijing, and New Delhi carry far greater significance than routine economic management, as they will shape structural outcomes beyond conventional business cycles.
This is why I’m stepping back from the noise.
Not because the outcome doesn’t matter. But because it matters too much to let social media distract me.
I do not want to be susceptible to social media influence on my investment decisions anymore. Rather than going on herd behavior, I am happy acting as a dead body till the rest of my days as an RA and as a private investor in markets.
Rather than being a part of 20 groups and communities, it becomes important to develop confidence on your own thesis.
There are some wonderful Substacks out there
They will provide a lot of quality content to interested readers.
I have wasted 14 years of my life trying to help investors and my fellow friends. I want to be a little selfish for the last 12-15 years of my life to try to make some returns and do justice by the limited clients I have till they chose to be my clients.
It has been a pleasure writing this blog…
Ayush Agrawal